Kelly Criterion Calculator
Calculate Optimal Bet Size
The Kelly Criterion helps you determine the optimal percentage of your bankroll to bet based on your edge.
e.g., 1.95 for top scorer bet
Your model's estimate
Total betting capital
Sharpe Ratio Analysis — Risk-Adjusted Performance
Top Players by Risk-Adjusted Returns
Sharpe Ratio = (Return - Risk-free Rate) / Standard Deviation. Higher = better risk-adjusted returns.
7.16
Erling Haaland Sharpe Ratio
Excellent
20.52
Kylian Mbappé Sharpe Ratio
Excellent
8.53
Harry Kane Sharpe Ratio
Excellent
7.17
Donyell Malen Sharpe Ratio
Excellent
| Player | Avg ROI (%) | Volatility (σ) | Max Drawdown | Win Rate (%) | Sharpe Ratio | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Erling Haaland
|
+25.0% | 3.2% | -9% | 70% | 7.16 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
|
Kylian Mbappé
|
+25.0% | 1.1% | -5% | 70% | 20.52 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
|
Harry Kane
|
+25.0% | 2.7% | -8% | 70% | 8.53 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
|
Donyell Malen
|
+25.0% | 3.2% | -9% | 70% | 7.17 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
|
Kylian Mbappé
|
+25.0% | 1.4% | -4% | 70% | 16.02 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
|
Harry Kane
|
+25.0% | 0.0% | -2% | 80% | 0.00 | ⭐ |
|
Anthony Gordon
|
+24.6% | 2.1% | -5% | 70% | 10.96 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
|
Julián Álvarez
|
+22.0% | 1.4% | -4% | 70% | 14.14 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
💡 Analysis Note: Sharpe Ratio above 1.0 indicates excellent risk-adjusted performance. Players with high Sharpe ratios offer better value relative to their volatility.
Data Source
Analysis based on 60 players across 5 major leagues. Data last updated: 2026-05-31.